12-month target, October 2027
$56.11
Fair value today $45.80, at a % yearly hurdle
Price :
If new Blackwell-generation capacity rents for $M per megawatt a year, Vera Rubin capacity , and in October 2027 the market pays x the next twelve months of EBITDA, the probability-weighted value is $56 a share, or $46 in today's money.
Underlined numbers are editable. The four scenarios below move with them.
Four scenarios for October 2027
Each is a full run of the model. The target is their weighted average; edit a weight to change it. "Show" switches the build and the model sheet to that scenario.
Levers
The eight inputs that move the answer most. Every other input is in the model sheet.
What the price implies
Working it out.
What moves the target
Each bar swings one lever across the range shown, with everything else as set. Bars are sorted by size.
The build
Capacity in IT-load megawatts at the end of each year, base scenario. Hatched capacity has no customer contract yet.
New capacity earns % of its first year, then bills on the ramp. 50% means it arrives evenly through the year. IREN's next deliveries are scheduled late in the year: Horizons 2-4 in the December quarter of 2026 and Sweetwater's first 200 MW in Q4 2027. At the v6.3 defaults, each 10 points moves the target by about $6.
The model sheet
The whole model by calendar year. Click any number to see how it's calculated. Type over a blue cell and press Enter to change an input.
Facts in the model
Filed or stated by the company, with the source and date of each.
Assumptions
Forward choices with no hard data behind them. These are what to argue with.